Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Nick Larkey

North Melbourne · @ HAW

1.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

33% (6/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

1.1

1.2

L10

0.9

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ HAW

Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.9°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 14.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Nickvs all playersStatHAW concedePer game

10.1Disposals355.0

6.6Kicks205.1

4.8Marks81.7

1.1Tackles60.8

0.0Clearances34.2

1.2Inside 50s51.3

4.4Contested Poss.127.8

2.0Goals12.3

Disposals

Nick10.1

HAW355.0

Kicks

Nick6.6

HAW205.1

Marks

Nick4.8

HAW81.7

Tackles

Nick1.1

HAW60.8

Clearances

Nick0.0

HAW34.2

Inside 50s

Nick1.2

HAW51.3

Contested Poss.

Nick4.4

HAW127.8

Goals

Nick2.0

HAW12.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

HAW concede · Tackles

60.8per game · league avg 56.9

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At York Park0.8(4)-0.3

Everywhere else1.0(146)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)0.6(8)-0.4

Dry games1.0(142)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.