Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

James Borlase

Adelaide · @ ESS

4.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

38% (5/13)

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Avg

4.1

4.2

L10

4.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jamesvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

11.1Disposals398.8

6.8Kicks232.6

4.1Marks116.9

1.6Tackles50.5

0.1Clearances33.3

0.3Inside 50s55.1

4.5Contested Poss.121.4

0.0Goals15.0

Disposals

James11.1

ESS398.8

Kicks

James6.8

ESS232.6

Marks

James4.1

ESS116.9

Tackles

James1.6

ESS50.5

Clearances

James0.1

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

James0.3

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

James4.5

ESS121.4

Goals

James0.0

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Marks

116.9per game · league avg 93.0

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Docklands6.0(1)+2.0

Everywhere else4.0(28)

Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)7.0(1)+3.1

Dry games3.9(28)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.