Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

ADE

Josh Worrell

Adelaide · @ ESS

5.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

47% (8/17)

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Avg

5.8

5.2

L10

5.2

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Joshvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

22.6Disposals398.8

14.6Kicks232.6

5.8Marks116.9

1.7Tackles50.5

0.5Clearances33.3

1.5Inside 50s55.1

6.2Contested Poss.121.4

0.0Goals15.0

Disposals

Josh22.6

ESS398.8

Kicks

Josh14.6

ESS232.6

Marks

Josh5.8

ESS116.9

Tackles

Josh1.7

ESS50.5

Clearances

Josh0.5

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Josh1.5

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Josh6.2

ESS121.4

Goals

Josh0.0

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Marks

116.9per game · league avg 93.0

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Docklands5.8(5)+0.8

Everywhere else5.0(67)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)5.2(6)+0.1

Dry games5.1(66)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.