Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Tom Sparrow

Melbourne · @ GCS

6.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

39% (7/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

6.1

5.8

L10

5.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 21 @ GCS

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Tomvs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

22.6Disposals359.7

12.6Kicks206.6

2.8Marks83.4

6.1Tackles64.7

5.7Clearances38.2

4.7Inside 50s52.9

9.7Contested Poss.128.1

0.4Goals13.2

Disposals

Tom22.6

GCS359.7

Kicks

Tom12.6

GCS206.6

Marks

Tom2.8

GCS83.4

Tackles

Tom6.1

GCS64.7

Clearances

Tom5.7

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Tom4.7

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Tom9.7

GCS128.1

Goals

Tom0.4

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Tackles

64.7per game · league avg 56.9

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Carrara4.0(5)+0.1

Everywhere else3.9(125)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.4(10)-0.6

Dry games4.0(120)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.