Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Tom Sparrow

Melbourne · @ GCS

10.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

44% (8/18)

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Avg

10.0

12.0

L10

11.2

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ GCS

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Tomvs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

22.6Disposals359.7

12.6Kicks206.6

2.8Marks83.4

6.1Tackles64.7

5.7Clearances38.2

4.7Inside 50s52.9

9.7Contested Poss.128.1

0.4Goals13.2

Disposals

Tom22.6

GCS359.7

Kicks

Tom12.6

GCS206.6

Marks

Tom2.8

GCS83.4

Tackles

Tom6.1

GCS64.7

Clearances

Tom5.7

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Tom4.7

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Tom9.7

GCS128.1

Goals

Tom0.4

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Handballs

153.2per game · league avg 155.5

#13 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara5.0(5)-2.0

Everywhere else7.0(125)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)7.2(10)+0.3

Dry games6.9(120)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.