Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jake Melksham

Melbourne · @ GCS

3.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

33% (2/6)

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Avg

3.3

3.2

L10

3.3

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ GCS

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jakevs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

7.8Disposals359.7

4.5Kicks206.6

2.8Marks83.4

1.0Tackles64.7

0.2Clearances38.2

1.7Inside 50s52.9

3.2Contested Poss.128.1

1.3Goals13.2

Disposals

Jake7.8

GCS359.7

Kicks

Jake4.5

GCS206.6

Marks

Jake2.8

GCS83.4

Tackles

Jake1.0

GCS64.7

Clearances

Jake0.2

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Jake1.7

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Jake3.2

GCS128.1

Goals

Jake1.3

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Handballs

153.2per game · league avg 155.5

#13 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara3.5(6)+0.6

Everywhere else2.9(90)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)4.2(9)+1.5

Dry games2.8(87)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.