Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 3 days ago

Riley Thilthorpe

Adelaide · @ ESS

1.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

40% (6/15)

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Avg

1.5

1.6

L10

1.3

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Rileyvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

12.9Disposals398.8

8.5Kicks232.6

5.3Marks116.9

1.5Tackles50.5

1.1Clearances33.3

2.4Inside 50s55.1

6.5Contested Poss.121.4

1.4Goals15.0

Disposals

Riley12.9

ESS398.8

Kicks

Riley8.5

ESS232.6

Marks

Riley5.3

ESS116.9

Tackles

Riley1.5

ESS50.5

Clearances

Riley1.1

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Riley2.4

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Riley6.5

ESS121.4

Goals

Riley1.4

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Tackles

50.5per game · league avg 56.9

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands1.5(8)-0.3

Everywhere else1.8(85)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)1.2(10)-0.6

Dry games1.8(83)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.