Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Riley Thilthorpe

Adelaide · @ ESS

1.5 GLO —U —

Hit rate

33% (5/15)

enter odds to compare

Avg

1.4

L10

1.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Rileyvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

12.9Disposals398.8

8.5Kicks232.6

5.3Marks116.9

1.5Tackles50.5

1.1Clearances33.3

2.4Inside 50s55.1

6.5Contested Poss.121.4

1.4Goals15.0

Disposals

Riley12.9

ESS398.8

Kicks

Riley8.5

ESS232.6

Marks

Riley5.3

ESS116.9

Tackles

Riley1.5

ESS50.5

Clearances

Riley1.1

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Riley2.4

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Riley6.5

ESS121.4

Goals

Riley1.4

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Goals

15.0per game · league avg 12.7

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Goals

At Docklands2.1(8)+0.7

Everywhere else1.4(85)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Goals

Wet games (≥1mm)1.7(10)+0.2

Dry games1.5(83)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.