Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Jake Lever

Melbourne · @ GCS

7.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

53% (9/17)

enter odds to compare

Avg

7.3

5.6

L10

6.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ GCS

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jakevs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

15.2Disposals359.7

10.5Kicks206.6

7.3Marks83.4

1.5Tackles64.7

0.0Clearances38.2

0.8Inside 50s52.9

4.1Contested Poss.128.1

0.0Goals13.2

Disposals

Jake15.2

GCS359.7

Kicks

Jake10.5

GCS206.6

Marks

Jake7.3

GCS83.4

Tackles

Jake1.5

GCS64.7

Clearances

Jake0.0

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Jake0.8

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Jake4.1

GCS128.1

Goals

Jake0.0

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Marks

83.4per game · league avg 93.0

#13 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Marks

At Carrara5.6(5)

Everywhere else5.6(131)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)5.3(7)-0.3

Dry games5.6(129)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.