Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jake Lever

Melbourne · @ GCS

4.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

41% (7/17)

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Avg

4.8

7.4

L10

5.8

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ GCS

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jakevs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

15.2Disposals359.7

10.5Kicks206.6

7.3Marks83.4

1.5Tackles64.7

0.0Clearances38.2

0.8Inside 50s52.9

4.1Contested Poss.128.1

0.0Goals13.2

Disposals

Jake15.2

GCS359.7

Kicks

Jake10.5

GCS206.6

Marks

Jake7.3

GCS83.4

Tackles

Jake1.5

GCS64.7

Clearances

Jake0.0

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Jake0.8

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Jake4.1

GCS128.1

Goals

Jake0.0

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Handballs

153.2per game · league avg 155.5

#13 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara3.8(5)-1.3

Everywhere else5.1(131)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)7.0(7)+2.1

Dry games4.9(129)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.