Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Zac Taylor

Adelaide · @ ESS

12.5 DIO —U —

Hit rate

50% (8/16)

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Avg

12.9

14.2

L10

14.1

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Zacvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

12.9Disposals398.8

6.8Kicks232.6

3.4Marks116.9

2.7Tackles50.5

0.8Clearances33.3

2.3Inside 50s55.1

4.4Contested Poss.121.4

0.6Goals15.0

Disposals

Zac12.9

ESS398.8

Kicks

Zac6.8

ESS232.6

Marks

Zac3.4

ESS116.9

Tackles

Zac2.7

ESS50.5

Clearances

Zac0.8

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Zac2.3

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Zac4.4

ESS121.4

Goals

Zac0.6

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Disposals

398.8per game · league avg 369.3

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Disposals

At Docklands12.0(4)+1.2

Everywhere else10.8(38)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Disposals

Wet games (≥1mm)12.8(5)+2.1

Dry games10.7(37)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.