Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Bayley Fritsch

Melbourne · @ GCS

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

50% (8/16)

enter odds to compare

Avg

0.8

0.4

L10

0.7

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ GCS

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Bayleyvs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

12.9Disposals359.7

8.1Kicks206.6

3.8Marks83.4

2.1Tackles64.7

0.6Clearances38.2

2.2Inside 50s52.9

4.4Contested Poss.128.1

1.4Goals13.2

Disposals

Bayley12.9

GCS359.7

Kicks

Bayley8.1

GCS206.6

Marks

Bayley3.8

GCS83.4

Tackles

Bayley2.1

GCS64.7

Clearances

Bayley0.6

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Bayley2.2

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Bayley4.4

GCS128.1

Goals

Bayley1.4

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Frees For

21.4per game · league avg 19.0

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At Carrara0.5(8)-0.3

Everywhere else0.8(156)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.8(12)

Dry games0.8(152)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.