Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Nick Watson

Hawthorn · vs NOR

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

50% (8/16)

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Avg

0.9

0.6

L10

0.9

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs NOR

Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.9°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 14.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Nickvs all playersStatNOR concedePer game

13.4Disposals340.7

8.1Kicks197.6

2.3Marks90.7

2.3Tackles54.6

1.2Clearances33.9

2.6Inside 50s52.3

6.6Contested Poss.119.2

2.8Goals13.4

Disposals

Nick13.4

NOR340.7

Kicks

Nick8.1

NOR197.6

Marks

Nick2.3

NOR90.7

Tackles

Nick2.3

NOR54.6

Clearances

Nick1.2

NOR33.9

Inside 50s

Nick2.6

NOR52.3

Contested Poss.

Nick6.6

NOR119.2

Goals

Nick2.8

NOR13.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NOR concede · Frees For

20.8per game · league avg 19.0

#3 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At York Park2.3(9)+1.2

Everywhere else1.1(50)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.6(7)+0.3

Dry games1.3(52)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.