AFL
PProjectPunt
Nick Watson
Nick Watson
Hawthorn · vs ESS
13.5 DIO U
Hit rate
44% (7/16)
enter odds to compare
Avg
13.4
L5
12.6
L10
12.4
High
21
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
17GWSMar 0717ESSMar 1318SYDMar 1913GEEApr 0612WBDApr 1113PORApr 1814GCSApr 2515COLApr 3011FREMay 079MELMay 1612ADEMay 2121STKMay 2811WBDJun 0515GCSJun 195GWSJun 2611RICJul 19?ESSJul 2513.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 20 vs ESS
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-25 16:1513.5°C0.1mm (34%)🌬 11.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Nick13.4
ESS398.8
Kicks
Nick8.1
ESS232.6
Marks
Nick2.3
ESS116.9
Tackles
Nick2.3
ESS50.5
Clearances
Nick1.2
ESS33.3
Inside 50s
Nick2.6
ESS55.1
Contested poss.
Nick6.6
ESS121.4
Goals
Nick2.8
ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Disposals

398.8per game · league avg 369.3
#1 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Disposals

At M.C.G.11.4(27)-0.2
Everywhere else11.6(32)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Disposals

Wet games (≥1mm)14.0(7)+2.8
Dry games11.2(52)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.