AFL
PProjectPunt
Josh Ward
Josh Ward
Hawthorn · vs ESS
3.5 MKO U
Hit rate
50% (9/18)
enter odds to compare
Avg
3.9
L5
3.4
L10
4.1
High
7
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
6GWSMar 076ESSMar 134SYDMar 193GEEApr 062WBDApr 112PORApr 182GCSApr 255COLApr 305FREMay 075MELMay 162ADEMay 216STKMay 286WBDJun 053GCSJun 193GWSJun 267MELJul 042CARJul 112RICJul 19?ESSJul 253.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 20 vs ESS
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-25 16:1513.6°C0.1mm (34%)🌬 12 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Josh22.2
ESS398.8
Kicks
Josh10.6
ESS232.6
Marks
Josh3.9
ESS116.9
Tackles
Josh3.5
ESS50.5
Clearances
Josh3.5
ESS33.3
Inside 50s
Josh3.7
ESS55.1
Contested poss.
Josh7.5
ESS121.4
Goals
Josh0.2
ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Marks

116.9per game · league avg 93.0
#1 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At M.C.G.4.3(25)+1.2
Everywhere else3.1(30)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)3.8(8)+0.2
Dry games3.6(47)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.