Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Ned Reeves

Hawthorn · vs NOR

1.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

36% (5/14)

enter odds to compare

Avg

1.4

2.0

L10

1.7

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs NOR

Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.9°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 14.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Nedvs all playersStatNOR concedePer game

7.5Disposals340.7

4.3Kicks197.6

0.8Marks90.7

2.5Tackles54.6

2.9Clearances33.9

1.2Inside 50s52.3

4.9Contested Poss.119.2

0.4Goals13.4

Disposals

Ned7.5

NOR340.7

Kicks

Ned4.3

NOR197.6

Marks

Ned0.8

NOR90.7

Tackles

Ned2.5

NOR54.6

Clearances

Ned2.9

NOR33.9

Inside 50s

Ned1.2

NOR52.3

Contested Poss.

Ned4.9

NOR119.2

Goals

Ned0.4

NOR13.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NOR concede · Frees For

20.8per game · league avg 19.0

#3 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At York Park0.9(8)-0.1

Everywhere else1.0(49)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.8(5)-0.2

Dry games1.0(52)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.