Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jake Soligo

Adelaide · @ ESS

7.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

44% (7/16)

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Avg

7.3

8.0

L10

7.6

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jakevs all playersStatESS concedePer game

16.6Disposals398.8

9.3Kicks232.6

2.7Marks116.9

4.1Tackles50.5

2.1Clearances33.3

2.5Inside 50s55.1

6.5Contested Poss.121.4

0.6Goals15.0

Disposals

Jake16.6

ESS398.8

Kicks

Jake9.3

ESS232.6

Marks

Jake2.7

ESS116.9

Tackles

Jake4.1

ESS50.5

Clearances

Jake2.1

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Jake2.5

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Jake6.5

ESS121.4

Goals

Jake0.6

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands9.0(7)+0.9

Everywhere else8.1(94)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)9.8(11)+1.8

Dry games8.0(90)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.