Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Finn Maginness

Hawthorn · vs NOR

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

40% (2/5)

enter odds to compare

Avg

0.6

L10

0.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs NOR

Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.9°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 14.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Finnvs all playersStatNOR concedePer game

14.6Disposals340.7

4.8Kicks197.6

2.0Marks90.7

2.2Tackles54.6

0.6Clearances33.9

0.6Inside 50s52.3

6.0Contested Poss.119.2

0.4Goals13.4

Disposals

Finn14.6

NOR340.7

Kicks

Finn4.8

NOR197.6

Marks

Finn2.0

NOR90.7

Tackles

Finn2.2

NOR54.6

Clearances

Finn0.6

NOR33.9

Inside 50s

Finn0.6

NOR52.3

Contested Poss.

Finn6.0

NOR119.2

Goals

Finn0.4

NOR13.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NOR concede · Frees For

20.8per game · league avg 19.0

#3 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At York Park0.1(12)-0.3

Everywhere else0.3(51)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.1(7)-0.2

Dry games0.3(56)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.