AFL
PProjectPunt
HAW
Will Day
Hawthorn · vs ESS
10.5 HBO U
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
enter odds to compare
Avg
10.2
L5
10.4
L10
10.2
High
14
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
9STKMay 2814WBDJun 059GCSJun 1913GWSJun 268MELJul 048CARJul 11?ESSJul 2510.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 20 vs ESS
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-25 16:1513.6°C0.1mm (34%)🌬 12 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Will22.5
ESS398.8
Kicks
Will12.3
ESS232.6
Marks
Will3.5
ESS116.9
Tackles
Will5.0
ESS50.5
Clearances
Will5.2
ESS33.3
Inside 50s
Will5.0
ESS55.1
Contested poss.
Will9.5
ESS121.4
Goals
Will0.7
ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5
#2 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At M.C.G.9.2(12)-1.9
Everywhere else11.1(16)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)12.3(3)+2.3
Dry games10.0(25)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.