Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Sam Butler

Hawthorn · vs NOR

3.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

57% (4/7)

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Avg

3.7

5.0

L10

3.7

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs NOR

Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.9°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 14.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatNOR concedePer game

11.9Disposals340.7

8.0Kicks197.6

3.6Marks90.7

3.7Tackles54.6

0.9Clearances33.9

2.1Inside 50s52.3

3.1Contested Poss.119.2

0.6Goals13.4

Disposals

Sam11.9

NOR340.7

Kicks

Sam8.0

NOR197.6

Marks

Sam3.6

NOR90.7

Tackles

Sam3.7

NOR54.6

Clearances

Sam0.9

NOR33.9

Inside 50s

Sam2.1

NOR52.3

Contested Poss.

Sam3.1

NOR119.2

Goals

Sam0.6

NOR13.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NOR concede · Tackles

54.6per game · league avg 56.9

#13 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At York Park3.6(5)+0.8

Everywhere else2.8(27)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)1.5(4)-1.6

Dry games3.1(28)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.