AFL
PProjectPunt
Sam Butler
Sam Butler
Hawthorn · vs ESS
0.5 GLO U
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
enter odds to compare
Avg
0.6
L5
0.4
L10
0.6
High
2
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
2GWSMar 070ESSMar 131SYDMar 190GEEApr 060WBDApr 110PORApr 181FREMay 07?ESSJul 250.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 20 vs ESS
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-25 16:1513.6°C0.1mm (34%)🌬 12 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Sam11.9
ESS398.8
Kicks
Sam8.0
ESS232.6
Marks
Sam3.6
ESS116.9
Tackles
Sam3.7
ESS50.5
Clearances
Sam0.9
ESS33.3
Inside 50s
Sam2.1
ESS55.1
Contested poss.
Sam3.1
ESS121.4
Goals
Sam0.6
ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Goals

15.0per game · league avg 12.7
#2 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Goals

At M.C.G.0.3(4)-0.3
Everywhere else0.5(11)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Goals

Wet games (≥1mm)2.0(1)+1.6
Dry games0.4(14)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.