AFL
PProjectPunt
Sam Butler
Sam Butler
Hawthorn · vs ESS
11.5 DIO U
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
enter odds to compare
Avg
11.9
L5
12.8
L10
11.9
High
19
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
10GWSMar 079ESSMar 1314SYDMar 1919GEEApr 069WBDApr 1110PORApr 1812FREMay 07?ESSJul 2511.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 20 vs ESS
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-25 16:1513.5°C0.1mm (34%)🌬 11.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Sam11.9
ESS398.8
Kicks
Sam8.0
ESS232.6
Marks
Sam3.6
ESS116.9
Tackles
Sam3.7
ESS50.5
Clearances
Sam0.9
ESS33.3
Inside 50s
Sam2.1
ESS55.1
Contested poss.
Sam3.1
ESS121.4
Goals
Sam0.6
ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Disposals

398.8per game · league avg 369.3
#1 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Disposals

At M.C.G.12.3(4)+1.8
Everywhere else10.5(11)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Disposals

Wet games (≥1mm)10.0(1)-1.0
Dry games11.0(14)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.