Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jesse Hogan

Greater Western Sydney · @ POR

1.5 GLO —U —

Hit rate

44% (4/9)

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Avg

1.3

1.4

L10

1.3

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ POR

Game conditionsAdelaide Oval · AdelaideRound 21 · 2026-08-01 18:35☁ 9.8°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 8.7 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jessevs all playersStatPOR concedePer game

9.0Disposals361.6

6.2Kicks207.9

4.4Marks92.1

0.9Tackles59.0

0.1Clearances32.3

1.6Inside 50s49.4

3.6Contested Poss.127.2

1.3Goals11.7

Disposals

Jesse9.0

POR361.6

Kicks

Jesse6.2

POR207.9

Marks

Jesse4.4

POR92.1

Tackles

Jesse0.9

POR59.0

Clearances

Jesse0.1

POR32.3

Inside 50s

Jesse1.6

POR49.4

Contested Poss.

Jesse3.6

POR127.2

Goals

Jesse1.3

POR11.7

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

POR concede · Goals

11.7per game · league avg 12.7

#14 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Goals

At Adelaide Oval2.4(7)

Everywhere else2.4(93)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Goals

Wet games (≥1mm)2.8(4)+0.4

Dry games2.4(96)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.