Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Izak Rankine

Adelaide · @ ESS

8.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

40% (6/15)

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Avg

8.6

11.2

L10

10.3

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Izakvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

21.4Disposals398.8

12.8Kicks232.6

3.5Marks116.9

3.9Tackles50.5

3.9Clearances33.3

4.3Inside 50s55.1

9.8Contested Poss.121.4

0.9Goals15.0

Disposals

Izak21.4

ESS398.8

Kicks

Izak12.8

ESS232.6

Marks

Izak3.5

ESS116.9

Tackles

Izak3.9

ESS50.5

Clearances

Izak3.9

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Izak4.3

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Izak9.8

ESS121.4

Goals

Izak0.9

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands4.3(3)-3.0

Everywhere else7.3(69)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)8.3(8)+1.2

Dry games7.0(64)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.