Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Hugh Bond

Adelaide · @ ESS

3.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

43% (3/7)

enter odds to compare

Avg

3.1

3.4

L10

3.1

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Hughvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

11.0Disposals398.8

7.6Kicks232.6

3.1Marks116.9

2.4Tackles50.5

0.6Clearances33.3

0.7Inside 50s55.1

3.4Contested Poss.121.4

0.0Goals15.0

Disposals

Hugh11.0

ESS398.8

Kicks

Hugh7.6

ESS232.6

Marks

Hugh3.1

ESS116.9

Tackles

Hugh2.4

ESS50.5

Clearances

Hugh0.6

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Hugh0.7

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Hugh3.4

ESS121.4

Goals

Hugh0.0

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Marks

116.9per game · league avg 93.0

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Docklands1.0(2)-1.2

Everywhere else2.2(17)

Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(3)-0.9

Dry games2.2(16)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.