Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Josh Rachele

Adelaide · @ ESS

1.5 GLO —U —

Hit rate

44% (8/18)

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Avg

1.7

1.8

L10

1.9

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Joshvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

17.8Disposals398.8

11.9Kicks232.6

3.3Marks116.9

2.7Tackles50.5

1.9Clearances33.3

3.4Inside 50s55.1

7.1Contested Poss.121.4

1.7Goals15.0

Disposals

Josh17.8

ESS398.8

Kicks

Josh11.9

ESS232.6

Marks

Josh3.3

ESS116.9

Tackles

Josh2.7

ESS50.5

Clearances

Josh1.9

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Josh3.4

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Josh7.1

ESS121.4

Goals

Josh1.7

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Goals

15.0per game · league avg 12.7

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Goals

At Docklands2.2(6)+0.8

Everywhere else1.4(82)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Goals

Wet games (≥1mm)1.6(8)+0.2

Dry games1.4(80)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.