Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Matt Rowell

Gold Coast · vs MEL

2.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

31% (4/13)

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Avg

2.2

2.8

L10

2.2

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Mattvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

24.4Disposals382.0

11.5Kicks220.8

2.2Marks101.2

6.2Tackles51.0

6.4Clearances35.6

3.7Inside 50s52.3

12.5Contested Poss.129.3

0.2Goals13.1

Disposals

Matt24.4

MEL382.0

Kicks

Matt11.5

MEL220.8

Marks

Matt2.2

MEL101.2

Tackles

Matt6.2

MEL51.0

Clearances

Matt6.4

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Matt3.7

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Matt12.5

MEL129.3

Goals

Matt0.2

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Marks

101.2per game · league avg 93.0

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Carrara1.6(47)

Everywhere else1.6(76)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)0.2(5)-1.5

Dry games1.7(118)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.