Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Matt Rowell

Gold Coast · vs MEL

2.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

31% (4/13)

enter odds to compare

Avg

2.2

L10

2.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Mattvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

24.4Disposals382.0

11.5Kicks220.8

2.2Marks101.2

6.2Tackles51.0

6.4Clearances35.6

3.7Inside 50s52.3

12.5Contested Poss.129.3

0.2Goals13.1

Disposals

Matt24.4

MEL382.0

Kicks

Matt11.5

MEL220.8

Marks

Matt2.2

MEL101.2

Tackles

Matt6.2

MEL51.0

Clearances

Matt6.4

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Matt3.7

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Matt12.5

MEL129.3

Goals

Matt0.2

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Frees For

17.1per game · league avg 19.0

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Frees For

At Carrara2.0(47)+0.1

Everywhere else1.9(76)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.6(5)-0.4

Dry games2.0(118)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.