Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jake Rogers

Gold Coast · vs MEL

5.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

20% (1/5)

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Avg

5.6

L10

5.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jakevs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

9.8Disposals382.0

4.2Kicks220.8

1.4Marks101.2

2.4Tackles51.0

0.6Clearances35.6

1.4Inside 50s52.3

4.2Contested Poss.129.3

0.6Goals13.1

Disposals

Jake9.8

MEL382.0

Kicks

Jake4.2

MEL220.8

Marks

Jake1.4

MEL101.2

Tackles

Jake2.4

MEL51.0

Clearances

Jake0.6

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Jake1.4

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Jake4.2

MEL129.3

Goals

Jake0.6

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Handballs

161.2per game · league avg 155.5

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara5.3(7)+0.9

Everywhere else4.4(16)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)4.0(1)-0.7

Dry games4.7(22)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.