Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Ethan Read

Gold Coast · vs MEL

4.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

45% (5/11)

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Avg

4.2

3.6

L10

4.0

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Ethanvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

9.4Disposals382.0

5.2Kicks220.8

3.0Marks101.2

1.2Tackles51.0

0.5Clearances35.6

0.9Inside 50s52.3

4.3Contested Poss.129.3

0.9Goals13.1

Disposals

Ethan9.4

MEL382.0

Kicks

Ethan5.2

MEL220.8

Marks

Ethan3.0

MEL101.2

Tackles

Ethan1.2

MEL51.0

Clearances

Ethan0.5

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Ethan0.9

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Ethan4.3

MEL129.3

Goals

Ethan0.9

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Handballs

161.2per game · league avg 155.5

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara3.6(14)+1.1

Everywhere else2.5(22)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)3.0(1)+0.1

Dry games2.9(35)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.