Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Wil Powell

Gold Coast · vs MEL

5.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

31% (5/16)

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Avg

5.1

4.8

L10

5.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Wilvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

17.8Disposals382.0

10.7Kicks220.8

5.1Marks101.2

3.7Tackles51.0

1.1Clearances35.6

2.5Inside 50s52.3

5.1Contested Poss.129.3

0.3Goals13.1

Disposals

Wil17.8

MEL382.0

Kicks

Wil10.7

MEL220.8

Marks

Wil5.1

MEL101.2

Tackles

Wil3.7

MEL51.0

Clearances

Wil1.1

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Wil2.5

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Wil5.1

MEL129.3

Goals

Wil0.3

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Marks

101.2per game · league avg 93.0

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Carrara4.8(57)+0.1

Everywhere else4.8(82)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)3.8(8)-1.1

Dry games4.9(131)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.