Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

GCS

Ned Moyle

Gold Coast · vs MEL

5.5 KIO —U —

Hit rate

45% (5/11)

enter odds to compare

Avg

5.2

4.6

L10

5.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Nedvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

10.2Disposals382.0

5.2Kicks220.8

2.2Marks101.2

2.0Tackles51.0

2.4Clearances35.6

2.4Inside 50s52.3

6.8Contested Poss.129.3

0.4Goals13.1

Disposals

Ned10.2

MEL382.0

Kicks

Ned5.2

MEL220.8

Marks

Ned2.2

MEL101.2

Tackles

Ned2.0

MEL51.0

Clearances

Ned2.4

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Ned2.4

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Ned6.8

MEL129.3

Goals

Ned0.4

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Kicks

220.8per game · league avg 213.8

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Kicks

At Carrara4.8(9)-0.4

Everywhere else5.2(15)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Kicks

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(1)-4.2

Dry games5.2(23)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.