Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Touk Miller

Gold Coast · vs MEL

3.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

44% (8/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

3.8

3.4

L10

4.0

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Toukvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

25.2Disposals382.0

10.3Kicks220.8

3.8Marks101.2

4.0Tackles51.0

3.5Clearances35.6

3.4Inside 50s52.3

8.3Contested Poss.129.3

0.4Goals13.1

Disposals

Touk25.2

MEL382.0

Kicks

Touk10.3

MEL220.8

Marks

Touk3.8

MEL101.2

Tackles

Touk4.0

MEL51.0

Clearances

Touk3.5

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Touk3.4

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Touk8.3

MEL129.3

Goals

Touk0.4

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Marks

101.2per game · league avg 93.0

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Carrara3.6(62)-0.1

Everywhere else3.7(88)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)2.0(8)-1.8

Dry games3.8(142)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.