Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Ben Long

Gold Coast · vs MEL

4.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

44% (7/16)

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Avg

4.4

3.2

L10

3.8

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Benvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

11.1Disposals382.0

6.7Kicks220.8

3.2Marks101.2

2.3Tackles51.0

0.5Clearances35.6

2.7Inside 50s52.3

4.8Contested Poss.129.3

1.4Goals13.1

Disposals

Ben11.1

MEL382.0

Kicks

Ben6.7

MEL220.8

Marks

Ben3.2

MEL101.2

Tackles

Ben2.3

MEL51.0

Clearances

Ben0.5

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Ben2.7

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Ben4.8

MEL129.3

Goals

Ben1.4

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Handballs

161.2per game · league avg 155.5

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara3.6(29)+0.2

Everywhere else3.3(43)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)2.0(3)-1.5

Dry games3.5(69)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.