Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Joel Jeffrey

Gold Coast · vs MEL

5.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

47% (8/17)

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Avg

5.9

6.0

L10

4.9

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Joelvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

18.6Disposals382.0

12.6Kicks220.8

5.9Marks101.2

1.8Tackles51.0

0.8Clearances35.6

2.9Inside 50s52.3

3.6Contested Poss.129.3

0.2Goals13.1

Disposals

Joel18.6

MEL382.0

Kicks

Joel12.6

MEL220.8

Marks

Joel5.9

MEL101.2

Tackles

Joel1.8

MEL51.0

Clearances

Joel0.8

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Joel2.9

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Joel3.6

MEL129.3

Goals

Joel0.2

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Handballs

161.2per game · league avg 155.5

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara6.0(25)+1.7

Everywhere else4.3(45)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)3.5(4)-1.5

Dry games5.0(66)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.