Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Bailey Humphrey

Gold Coast · vs MEL

2.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

60% (9/15)

enter odds to compare

Avg

2.8

1.6

L10

2.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Baileyvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

12.7Disposals382.0

7.2Kicks220.8

2.8Marks101.2

3.2Tackles51.0

0.9Clearances35.6

3.6Inside 50s52.3

5.5Contested Poss.129.3

0.9Goals13.1

Disposals

Bailey12.7

MEL382.0

Kicks

Bailey7.2

MEL220.8

Marks

Bailey2.8

MEL101.2

Tackles

Bailey3.2

MEL51.0

Clearances

Bailey0.9

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Bailey3.6

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Bailey5.5

MEL129.3

Goals

Bailey0.9

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Marks

101.2per game · league avg 93.0

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Carrara2.6(31)+0.5

Everywhere else2.1(47)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)2.7(3)+0.4

Dry games2.3(75)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.