Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Nick Holman

Gold Coast · vs MEL

4.5 KIO —U —

Hit rate

33% (2/6)

enter odds to compare

Avg

4.3

3.8

L10

4.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Nickvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

11.0Disposals382.0

4.3Kicks220.8

2.3Marks101.2

2.3Tackles51.0

1.0Clearances35.6

1.3Inside 50s52.3

4.8Contested Poss.129.3

0.2Goals13.1

Disposals

Nick11.0

MEL382.0

Kicks

Nick4.3

MEL220.8

Marks

Nick2.3

MEL101.2

Tackles

Nick2.3

MEL51.0

Clearances

Nick1.0

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Nick1.3

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Nick4.8

MEL129.3

Goals

Nick0.2

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Kicks

220.8per game · league avg 213.8

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Kicks

At Carrara6.1(50)+1.5

Everywhere else4.6(72)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Kicks

Wet games (≥1mm)6.4(8)+1.3

Dry games5.1(114)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.