Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Will Graham

Gold Coast · vs MEL

10.5 DIO —U —

Hit rate

42% (5/12)

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Avg

10.8

7.4

L10

11.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (30%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Willvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

10.8Disposals382.0

4.9Kicks220.8

2.7Marks101.2

3.3Tackles51.0

1.1Clearances35.6

2.8Inside 50s52.3

5.3Contested Poss.129.3

0.4Goals13.1

Disposals

Will10.8

MEL382.0

Kicks

Will4.9

MEL220.8

Marks

Will2.7

MEL101.2

Tackles

Will3.3

MEL51.0

Clearances

Will1.1

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Will2.8

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Will5.3

MEL129.3

Goals

Will0.4

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Disposals

382.0per game · league avg 369.3

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Disposals

At Carrara10.4(14)-2.1

Everywhere else12.5(23)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Disposals

Wet games (≥1mm)7.0(1)-4.8

Dry games11.8(36)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.