Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Alex Davies

Gold Coast · vs MEL

1.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

17% (1/6)

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Avg

1.0

L10

1.0

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Alexvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

16.2Disposals382.0

5.3Kicks220.8

1.0Marks101.2

4.5Tackles51.0

2.5Clearances35.6

2.8Inside 50s52.3

8.7Contested Poss.129.3

0.5Goals13.1

Disposals

Alex16.2

MEL382.0

Kicks

Alex5.3

MEL220.8

Marks

Alex1.0

MEL101.2

Tackles

Alex4.5

MEL51.0

Clearances

Alex2.5

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Alex2.8

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Alex8.7

MEL129.3

Goals

Alex0.5

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Frees For

17.1per game · league avg 19.0

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Frees For

At Carrara0.9(16)+0.1

Everywhere else0.8(30)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(1)+0.2

Dry games0.8(45)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.