Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Sam Clohesy

Gold Coast · vs MEL

2.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

56% (5/9)

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Avg

2.7

2.8

L10

2.7

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

16.1Disposals382.0

9.0Kicks220.8

4.7Marks101.2

2.7Tackles51.0

0.6Clearances35.6

2.1Inside 50s52.3

4.1Contested Poss.129.3

0.2Goals13.1

Disposals

Sam16.1

MEL382.0

Kicks

Sam9.0

MEL220.8

Marks

Sam4.7

MEL101.2

Tackles

Sam2.7

MEL51.0

Clearances

Sam0.6

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Sam2.1

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Sam4.1

MEL129.3

Goals

Sam0.2

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Tackles

51.0per game · league avg 56.9

#15 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At Carrara2.3(15)-0.2

Everywhere else2.5(28)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)4.0(2)+1.6

Dry games2.4(41)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.