Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Luke Nankervis

Adelaide · @ ESS

3.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

33% (4/12)

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Avg

3.0

4.6

L10

3.2

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lukevs all playersStatESS concedePer game

14.9Disposals398.8

8.2Kicks232.6

3.0Marks116.9

2.7Tackles50.5

0.8Clearances33.3

1.1Inside 50s55.1

5.4Contested Poss.121.4

0.3Goals15.0

Disposals

Luke14.9

ESS398.8

Kicks

Luke8.2

ESS232.6

Marks

Luke3.0

ESS116.9

Tackles

Luke2.7

ESS50.5

Clearances

Luke0.8

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Luke1.1

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Luke5.4

ESS121.4

Goals

Luke0.3

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Marks

116.9per game · league avg 93.0

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Docklands5.3(3)+1.4

Everywhere else3.9(40)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(3)-3.3

Dry games4.3(40)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.