Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Mac Andrew

Gold Coast · vs MEL

1.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

28% (5/18)

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Avg

1.1

0.8

L10

1.0

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Macvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

18.2Disposals382.0

11.3Kicks220.8

7.0Marks101.2

1.5Tackles51.0

0.6Clearances35.6

1.5Inside 50s52.3

4.9Contested Poss.129.3

0.1Goals13.1

Disposals

Mac18.2

MEL382.0

Kicks

Mac11.3

MEL220.8

Marks

Mac7.0

MEL101.2

Tackles

Mac1.5

MEL51.0

Clearances

Mac0.6

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Mac1.5

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Mac4.9

MEL129.3

Goals

Mac0.1

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Frees For

17.1per game · league avg 19.0

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Frees For

At Carrara0.9(32)-0.2

Everywhere else1.0(51)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.7(3)+0.7

Dry games0.9(80)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.