Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Lawson Humphries

Geelong · @ COL

2.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

41% (7/17)

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Avg

2.4

2.6

L10

2.4

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ COL

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9.1°C☂ 0.3mm (4%)🌬 5.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lawsonvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

20.6Disposals389.3

14.8Kicks227.3

5.7Marks105.6

2.4Tackles48.4

0.6Clearances35.6

2.1Inside 50s55.2

4.4Contested Poss.128.0

0.2Goals11.6

Disposals

Lawson20.6

COL389.3

Kicks

Lawson14.8

COL227.3

Marks

Lawson5.7

COL105.6

Tackles

Lawson2.4

COL48.4

Clearances

Lawson0.6

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Lawson2.1

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Lawson4.4

COL128.0

Goals

Lawson0.2

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Tackles

48.4per game · league avg 56.9

#18 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At M.C.G.2.5(14)+0.6

Everywhere else1.9(39)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)1.7(3)-0.4

Dry games2.1(50)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.