Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Lawson Humphries

Geelong · @ COL

14.5 KIO —U —

Hit rate

41% (7/17)

enter odds to compare

Avg

14.8

16.0

L10

15.7

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ COL

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9.1°C☂ 0.3mm (4%)🌬 5.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lawsonvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

20.6Disposals389.3

14.8Kicks227.3

5.7Marks105.6

2.4Tackles48.4

0.6Clearances35.6

2.1Inside 50s55.2

4.4Contested Poss.128.0

0.2Goals11.6

Disposals

Lawson20.6

COL389.3

Kicks

Lawson14.8

COL227.3

Marks

Lawson5.7

COL105.6

Tackles

Lawson2.4

COL48.4

Clearances

Lawson0.6

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Lawson2.1

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Lawson4.4

COL128.0

Goals

Lawson0.2

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Kicks

227.3per game · league avg 213.8

#3 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Kicks

At M.C.G.13.1(14)-0.1

Everywhere else13.2(39)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Kicks

Wet games (≥1mm)10.3(3)-3.0

Dry games13.3(50)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.