Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

GEE

Zach Guthrie

Geelong · @ COL

6.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

44% (8/18)

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Avg

6.1

5.2

L10

5.7

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ COL

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9.1°C☂ 0.3mm (4%)🌬 5.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Zachvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

16.0Disposals389.3

9.9Kicks227.3

5.0Marks105.6

2.9Tackles48.4

0.6Clearances35.6

1.1Inside 50s55.2

4.1Contested Poss.128.0

0.1Goals11.6

Disposals

Zach16.0

COL389.3

Kicks

Zach9.9

COL227.3

Marks

Zach5.0

COL105.6

Tackles

Zach2.9

COL48.4

Clearances

Zach0.6

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Zach1.1

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Zach4.1

COL128.0

Goals

Zach0.1

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Handballs

162.1per game · league avg 155.5

#4 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At M.C.G.5.4(34)+0.7

Everywhere else4.7(95)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)4.1(8)-0.8

Dry games4.9(121)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.