Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Patrick Dangerfield

Geelong · @ COL

6.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

64% (9/14)

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Avg

6.8

6.6

L10

7.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ COL

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9.1°C☂ 0.3mm (4%)🌬 5.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Patrickvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

14.7Disposals389.3

7.9Kicks227.3

3.2Marks105.6

1.6Tackles48.4

1.9Clearances35.6

3.2Inside 50s55.2

7.3Contested Poss.128.0

1.3Goals11.6

Disposals

Patrick14.7

COL389.3

Kicks

Patrick7.9

COL227.3

Marks

Patrick3.2

COL105.6

Tackles

Patrick1.6

COL48.4

Clearances

Patrick1.9

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Patrick3.2

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Patrick7.3

COL128.0

Goals

Patrick1.3

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Handballs

162.1per game · league avg 155.5

#4 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At M.C.G.10.1(38)+1.5

Everywhere else8.6(112)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)8.3(13)-0.7

Dry games9.0(137)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.