Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Brad Close

Geelong · @ COL

2.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

36% (4/11)

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Avg

2.4

3.2

L10

2.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ COL

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9.1°C☂ 0.3mm (4%)🌬 5.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Bradvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

9.6Disposals389.3

4.6Kicks227.3

2.1Marks105.6

2.4Tackles48.4

0.2Clearances35.6

2.4Inside 50s55.2

3.2Contested Poss.128.0

0.7Goals11.6

Disposals

Brad9.6

COL389.3

Kicks

Brad4.6

COL227.3

Marks

Brad2.1

COL105.6

Tackles

Brad2.4

COL48.4

Clearances

Brad0.2

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Brad2.4

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Brad3.2

COL128.0

Goals

Brad0.7

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Tackles

48.4per game · league avg 56.9

#18 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At M.C.G.2.4(36)-0.6

Everywhere else3.0(102)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.5(11)+0.7

Dry games2.7(127)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.