Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Brad Close

Geelong · @ COL

5.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

45% (5/11)

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Avg

5.0

5.4

L10

4.9

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ COL

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9.1°C☂ 0.3mm (4%)🌬 5.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Bradvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

9.6Disposals389.3

4.6Kicks227.3

2.1Marks105.6

2.4Tackles48.4

0.2Clearances35.6

2.4Inside 50s55.2

3.2Contested Poss.128.0

0.7Goals11.6

Disposals

Brad9.6

COL389.3

Kicks

Brad4.6

COL227.3

Marks

Brad2.1

COL105.6

Tackles

Brad2.4

COL48.4

Clearances

Brad0.2

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Brad2.4

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Brad3.2

COL128.0

Goals

Brad0.7

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Handballs

162.1per game · league avg 155.5

#4 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At M.C.G.6.7(36)+0.2

Everywhere else6.6(102)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)6.4(11)-0.3

Dry games6.6(127)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.