Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Tom Atkins

Geelong · @ COL

1.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

44% (8/18)

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Avg

1.6

1.4

L10

1.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ COL

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9.1°C☂ 0.3mm (4%)🌬 5.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Tomvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

18.6Disposals389.3

7.6Kicks227.3

1.6Marks105.6

6.2Tackles48.4

3.7Clearances35.6

2.9Inside 50s55.2

10.1Contested Poss.128.0

0.2Goals11.6

Disposals

Tom18.6

COL389.3

Kicks

Tom7.6

COL227.3

Marks

Tom1.6

COL105.6

Tackles

Tom6.2

COL48.4

Clearances

Tom3.7

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Tom2.9

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Tom10.1

COL128.0

Goals

Tom0.2

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Marks

105.6per game · league avg 93.0

#4 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At M.C.G.1.8(47)-0.3

Everywhere else2.1(124)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)2.3(12)+0.3

Dry games2.0(159)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.