Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Sam Berry

Adelaide · @ ESS

2.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

50% (9/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

2.5

3.4

L10

2.8

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

22.6Disposals398.8

11.3Kicks232.6

2.5Marks116.9

7.7Tackles50.5

5.4Clearances33.3

3.4Inside 50s55.1

11.7Contested Poss.121.4

0.1Goals15.0

Disposals

Sam22.6

ESS398.8

Kicks

Sam11.3

ESS232.6

Marks

Sam2.5

ESS116.9

Tackles

Sam7.7

ESS50.5

Clearances

Sam5.4

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Sam3.4

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Sam11.7

ESS121.4

Goals

Sam0.1

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Marks

116.9per game · league avg 93.0

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Docklands1.9(11)+0.1

Everywhere else1.8(83)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(9)-0.5

Dry games1.8(85)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.